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The toppling and reported capture by incursive US forces of Venezuela's socialist president will dispatch a tremor of fear and consternation around the world. This coup is illegal, unprovoked, and regionally and globally destabilising. It overturns global standards, disregards sovereign territorial rights, and potentially creates an state of anarchy within the country.

It is policy crafted from chaos. But this is the reality we currently inhabit – the universe as defined by the US President.

A Remarkable and Dangerous Assertion of Unchecked American Might

The direct attack on Venezuela marks an extraordinary, dangerous declaration of unchecked American might and arrives the same week that Trump threatened armed attacks against another unpopular anti-western regime: that of Iran. It comes after many months of escalating US pressure through military, economic, and political means on Maduro, including lethal maritime attacks on vessels suspected of drug smuggling.

Trump asserts he is acting to stop illicit drugs flowing into the US through Venezuelan routes and to halt an alleged influx of “criminal element” migrants. In an echo of the American incursion into Iraq in 2003, he is also accused of coveting Venezuela’s huge petroleum and natural gas reserves – doubts strengthened by frequent, unlawful US seizures of Venezuelan petroleum carriers.

But Trump’s chief motivations appear to be personal animosity aimed at Maduro, and a desire to revive the historical Monroe Doctrine by establishing a US sphere of influence and supremacy throughout the west.

Hemispheric Alarm and Global Repercussions

Hemispheric heads of state, such as Colombia’s president, who has conflicted with Trump in the past few months, greeted the coup with outrage and alarm; not least, perhaps, because they worry they also could become targets of Washington’s newly aggressive dominance. Cuba’s leftwing government has particular cause for concern. It relies heavily on Venezuela’s regime for cheap energy and backing in politics and economics.

The US secretary of state has been explicit of his wish to see a change in government in Havana. In Panama, too, levels of concern will be elevated. Trump has in the past menaced military action there, over authority over the Panama Canal. Indeed, the alleged apprehension of Maduro brings to mind the 1989 US incursion into Panama and the toppling and arrest of its then dictator.

Autocratic, undemocratic governments around the world will be closely observing Trump’s next steps, as will Washington’s allies in democracy. Iran denounced the overthrow. It has valid cause to be apprehensive. But Russia’s president may not be totally displeased by the defenestration of his Venezuelan ally.

A Dangerous Precedent for International Disputes

Trump’s unjustified turn to force is not so very different from actions in invading Ukraine. Both have illegally attacked a bordering nation and attempted to oust its leadership. For China’s leader, whose forces were recently conducting military exercises against the “breakaway factions” of Taiwan, Trump has just established a benchmark he may eventually happily emulate.

Trump’s coup is of significant worry to Britain, the EU and democratic Western nations. They ought to, and have to, unequivocally condemn it. It openly confronts the laws and tenets of the global system they hold dear. The US has yet again disregarded the United Nations and traditional methods of addressing inter-state grievances. And it is proceeding with apparently scant regard for the subsequent events in Venezuela.

An Unclear Future and Risk of Disorder

The Caracas government has been decapitated, but remaining high-ranking figures of the regime seem to remain in place. They are urging resistance and, possibly, retaliation against the US. There are unconfirmed reports of civilian casualties. If a leadership void develops, public order might disintegrate, sparking internal conflict or a possible military coup. And it is unclear whether the most recent American armed intervention has concluded, or may intensify more.

The notion that banished dissident figures will swiftly return and that complete democratic rule will now be restored is unrealistic. The coming days will be decisive. And it’s all down to Trump.

The Myth of the Peacemaker

Trump’s imprudent move should finally lay to rest his always misleading self-portrayal as a “global peacemaker”. It’s past time that leaders in Europe publicly recognise him for who he is – a global warmaker, a universal menace.

Each time he stumbles clumsily into areas of dispute, imposing timelines, delivering final demands, choosing sides and monetising misery, the pursuit of just and lasting peace is hindered.

No surprise peace remains distant. And strangely, even while presenting himself as a neutral peace broker and one who avoids intervention, Trump concurrently conducts warfare on the world. The US conducted unprecedented levels of air strikes in the Middle East and Africa the previous year, surveys show.

A Heritage Built on Violence

Since resuming the presidency a year ago, peace-loving Trump has launched strikes in Yemen, negligently causing the deaths of numerous civilians after loosening rules of engagement; bombed Nigeria, to detrimental outcomes; bombed Somalia, Iraq and Syria; and targeted Iranian sites, where he falsely inflated the success of US strikes on atomic energy sites. He even will not exclude bombing Greenland, a sovereign territory of a NATO partner.

What’s going on inside Trump’s head? A charitable view is that in issues of conflict and tranquility, he has no conception what he is doing – no strategy, no clue – and invents strategy on the fly, depending on how he feels.

The sinister interpretation says he is fully aware what he’s at, that greater and more severe actions is to come. Like previous second-term presidents who exhausted options at home, Trump finds the world stage provides more opportunities for the exercise of power and ego. He is forging a historical record in blood.

Trump’s reckless, perilously unstable conduct is getting measurably worse. His Venezuela “triumph” may encourage him to attempt more and bigger, unhinged outrages. He struts and preens, shouts for chaos! and unleashes the hounds of conflict.