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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers improving together. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still