Everyday Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The typical number of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh administrative data. However, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers may not point to improved countrywide security.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President began the leadership in September of last year. This data was provided by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen over these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly militarised operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased collaboration between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

However, public safety analysts warned that using murder numbers to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is notably true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it might mask periods when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.