Beyond the Pageantry of Putin's Delhi Trip: The India-Russia Bond That Has Diminished.

The rhetoric and optics from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's latest visit to India hinted at a enduring bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the leaders shared a car journey, echoing a known political style. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and described the India-Russia bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's 10th visit to India during his quarter-century tenure and his 20th encounter with Modi since the latter took office in 2014.

A Chasm Separating Pageantry and Reality

Nevertheless, a noticeable disconnect persists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. Although Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of external pressure. The two nations signed numerous agreements in areas like mobility, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and academic exchanges. But, anticipated announcements on significant defence deals failed to materialize. India has abstained from any substantial defence purchases with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a situation fueled by holdups in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence needs.

A Partnership Losing Strategic Weight

This all suggests that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer carries the same strategic clout it once did. In the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential barter arrangements and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its allies. This unique alliance peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both countries have attempted to preserve a semblance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the same significance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened ties with the Western world.

Diversification and Underlying Tensions

New Delhi is not expected to cut its important links with Moscow. But, as external coercion mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to broaden the partnership into other sectors. During Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their ties "more diversified, balanced and long-lasting". This includes enhancing market access for Indian products to address a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important fields – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Bonds and Seen Reliability

At an sentimental level, a high degree of closeness with Russia persists, especially among older cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's pivotal support during the earlier era. This has translated into a degree of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing frictions between India and the US, where American leaders have made sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a increasingly dependable ally.

The key difficulty, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive joint statement released during Putin's India trip contained no mention to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the war have been minimal.

Navigating the Circle: India's Global Tightrope

This dynamic does not belie the underlying complexities in India's foreign policy. The country is poised to conclude a trade deal with the EU, after a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How can India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, leading to a end of hostilities and the removal of a major thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. But, should a settlement is achieved, if it falls short of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will certainly persist in European and American capitals.